Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of a Small Island Developing State: A case study for the Bahamas.

This study examines the direct and indirect impacts of climate change to the tourism sector on the islands of New Providence and adjacent Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The assessment was carried out by conducting a geospatial analysis of tourism establishments at risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined the geospatial analysis with publicly available databases to assess the integrated climate-related impacts pertaining to a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) economy. Our study estimated that many tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties at risk increases with a future scenario of a 1 m rise in sea level. While sea level rise (SLR) by itself only threatens a small number of properties, when combined with weak (Category 1), moderate (Category 3) and strong (Category 5) storms the resulting coastal flooding impacts 34%, 69%, and 83% of the tourism infrastructure (hotels and resorts), respectively. In addition to flooding, properties are also susceptible to coastal erosion with 28% of the total hotels and resorts on the two islands being situated within 0-50 m and 60% of the tourism infrastructure within 0-100 m of the coastline. Considering the economic importance of the sector, the potential impacts on the tourism infrastructure will cause significant losses in revenue and employment for the two islands. Furthermore, the majority of the tourism on these islands is beach-based and visitor expenditures will decline due to their vulnerability. These losses will have far-reaching social-economic consequences for the Bahamas. Our findings reveal a need for integrated coastal zone management that incorporates tourism management strategies with adaptation measures to deal with climate change.

Timing and locations of reef fish spawning off the southeastern United States.

Managed reef fish in the Atlantic Ocean of the southeastern United States (SEUS) support a multi-billion dollar industry. There is a broad interest in locating and protecting spawning fish from harvest, to enhance productivity and reduce the potential for overfishing. We assessed spatiotemporal cues for spawning for six species from four reef fish families, using data on individual spawning condition collected by over three decades of regional fishery-independent reef fish surveys, combined with a series of predictors derived from bathymetric features. We quantified the size of spawning areas used by reef fish across many years and identified several multispecies spawning locations. We quantitatively identified cues for peak spawning and generated predictive maps for Gray Triggerfish (Balistes capriscus), White Grunt (Haemulon plumierii), Red Snapper (Lutjanus campechanus), Vermilion Snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens), Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata), and Scamp (Mycteroperca phenax). For example, Red Snapper peak spawning was predicted in 24.7-29.0°C water prior to the new moon at locations with high curvature in the 24-30 m depth range off northeast Florida during June and July. External validation using scientific and fishery-dependent data collections strongly supported the predictive utility of our models. We identified locations where reconfiguration or expansion of existing marine protected areas would protect spawning reef fish. We recommend increased sampling off southern Florida (south of 27° N), during winter months, and in high-relief, high current habitats to improve our understanding of timing and location of reef fish spawning off the southeastern United States.

Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century.

Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge - one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity.

Depth-variable settlement patterns and predation influence on newly settled reef fishes (Haemulon spp., Haemulidae).

During early demersal ontogeny, many marine fishes display complex habitat-use patterns. Grunts of the speciose genus Haemulon are among the most abundant fishes on western North Atlantic coral reefs, with most species settling to shallow habitats (≤12 m). To gain understanding into cross-shelf distributional patterns exhibited by newly settled stages of grunts (<2 cm total length), we examined: 1) depth-specific distributions of congeners at settlement among sites at 8 m, 12 m, and 21 m, and 2) depth-variable predation pressure on newly settled individuals (species pooled). Of the six species identified from collections of newly settled specimens (n = 2125), Haemulon aurolineatum (tomtate), H. flavolineatum (French grunt), and H. striatum (striped grunt) comprised 98% of the total abundance; with the first two species present at all sites. Prevalence of H. aurolineatum and H. flavolineatum decreased substantially from the 8-m site to the two deeper sites. In contrast, H. striatum was absent from the 8-m site and exhibited its highest frequency at the 21-m site. Comparison of newly settled grunt delta density for all species on caged (predator exclusion) and control artificial reefs at the shallowest site (8-m) revealed no difference, while the 12-m and 21-m sites exhibited significantly greater delta densities on the caged treatment. This result, along with significantly higher abundances of co-occurring piscivorous fishes at the deeper sites, indicated lower predation pressure at the 8-m site. This study suggests habitat-use patterns of newly settled stages of some coral reef fishes that undergo ontogenetic shifts are a function of depth-variable predation pressure while, for at least one deeper-water species, proximity to adult habitat appears to be an important factor affecting settlement distribution.

A global baseline for spawning aggregations of reef fishes.

Species that periodically and predictably congregate on land or in the sea can be extremely vulnerable to overexploitation. Many coral reef fishes form spawning aggregations that are increasingly the target of fishing. Although serious declines are well known for a few species, the extent of this behavior among fishes and the impacts of aggregation fishing are not appreciated widely. To profile aggregating species globally, establish a baseline for future work, and strengthen the case for protection, we (as members of the Society for the Conservation of Reef Fish Aggregations) developed a global database on the occurrence, history, and management of spawning aggregations. We complemented the database with information from interviews with over 300 fishers in Asia and the western Pacific. Sixty-seven species, mainly commercial, in 9 families aggregate to spawn in the 29 countries or territories considered in the database. Ninety percent of aggregation records were from reef pass channels, promontories, and outer reef-slope drop-offs. Multispecies aggregation sites were common, and spawning seasons of most species typically lasted <3 months. The best-documented species in the database, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), has undergone substantial declines in aggregations throughout its range and is now considered threatened. Our findings have important conservation and management implications for aggregating species given that exploitation pressures on them are increasing, there is little effective management, and 79% of those aggregations sufficiently well documented were reported to be in decline. Nonetheless, a few success stories demonstrate the benefits of aggregation management. A major shift in perspective on spawning aggregations of reef fish, from being seen as opportunities for exploitation to acknowledging them as important life-history phenomena in need of management, is urgently needed.

Historical biogeography and speciation in the reef fish genus Haemulon (Teleostei: Haemulidae).

The high biodiversity of tropical marine hotspots has long intrigued evolutionary biologists and biogeographers. The genus Haemulon (grunts) is one of the most important (numerically, ecologically, and economically) reef fish groups in the New World and an excellent candidate to test hypotheses of speciation and diversity generation in the Greater Caribbean, the richest Atlantic biodiversity hotspot, as well as the eastern Pacific. To elucidate the phylogenetic relationships among the species of Haemulon, we obtained a combined total of 2639 base pairs from two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and cytochrome oxidase I), and two nuclear genes (TMO-4C4 and RAG2) from all nominal species. Parsimony, Maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses resulted in a well-resolved phylogeny with almost identical topologies. Previous phylogenetic hypotheses based on adult morphology, such as the close relationship among H. aurolineatum, H. boschmae, and H. striatum were not supported, whereas others using developmental characters, such as the relationship between H. plumieri and H. sciurus, were confirmed. Our data also indicate that the populations of the nominal H. steindachneri from the two sides of the Isthmus of Panama are genetically divergent at the species level in each ocean, and that the boga, Inermia vittata (family Inermiidae), belongs in the genus Haemulon. This evidence implies that there are 21 valid species of Haemulon, two more than previously recognized. The Amazon barrier and the Isthmus of Panama seem to have played roles in allopatric speciation of Haemulon. However, the majority of sister species pairs have completely overlapping distributions, indicating that vicariance is not the only process driving speciation in this genus. We conclude that both vicariance between biogeographic provinces, and ecological mechanisms of speciation within provinces contribute to species richness in the genus Haemulon.

Critical science gaps impede use of no-take fishery reserves.

As well as serving valuable biodiversity conservation roles, functioning no-take fishery reserves protect a portion of the fishery stock as insurance against future over-fishing. So long as there is adequate compliance by the fishing community, it is likely that they will also sustain and even enhance fishery yields in the surrounding area. However, there are significant gaps in scientific knowledge that must be filled if no-take reserves are to be used effectively as fishery management tools. Unfortunately, these gaps are being glossed over by some uncritical advocacy. Here, we review the science, identify the most crucial gaps, and suggest ways to fill them, so that a promising management tool can help meet the growing challenges faced by coastal marine fisheries.

Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean.

Mangrove forests are one of the world's most threatened tropical ecosystems with global loss exceeding 35% (ref. 1). Juvenile coral reef fish often inhabit mangroves, but the importance of these nurseries to reef fish population dynamics has not been quantified. Indeed, mangroves might be expected to have negligible influence on reef fish communities: juvenile fish can inhabit alternative habitats and fish populations may be regulated by other limiting factors such as larval supply or fishing. Here we show that mangroves are unexpectedly important, serving as an intermediate nursery habitat that may increase the survivorship of young fish. Mangroves in the Caribbean strongly influence the community structure of fish on neighbouring coral reefs. In addition, the biomass of several commercially important species is more than doubled when adult habitat is connected to mangroves. The largest herbivorous fish in the Atlantic, Scarus guacamaia, has a functional dependency on mangroves and has suffered local extinction after mangrove removal. Current rates of mangrove deforestation are likely to have severe deleterious consequences for the ecosystem function, fisheries productivity and resilience of reefs. Conservation efforts should protect connected corridors of mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.